The probability of winning the Melate jackpot is 1 in 32,468,436. That figure comes from counting every possible combination of 6 numbers from 1 to 56 (written in mathematics as C(56,6)). It's a very low probability, but there's an important fact that few people take into account: every combination of 6 numbers has exactly the same probability. There is no "luckier" group of numbers, nor any method that predicts the result. In this guide we explain the real odds of the jackpot, why the lower prize tiers are more attainable, and how Melate compares with its Retro variant.
Where does the figure 1 in 32,468,436 come from?
In Melate you choose 6 numbers from 1 to 56 on each ticket. To hit the jackpot you need your 6 numbers to match the 6 drawn in the draw, regardless of order. The total number of different ways to choose 6 numbers out of 56 is 32,468,436. That's why a single play has a probability of 1 in that figure of taking the jackpot.
It's worth stressing one point: Melate's bonus number does not enter into the jackpot calculation. That extra number is used for the secondary tiers, but the jackpot is won by matching the 6 main numbers. If you want to understand the full mechanics of how a ticket is filled out and what role the bonus number plays, we recommend reading How to play Melate.
Every combination is worth the same
A very widespread idea is that certain combinations "can't come up," such as 1-2-3-4-5-6. The mathematical truth is the opposite: that combination has exactly the same probability as any other, namely 1 in 32,468,436. The draw doesn't know whether your numbers form a pretty pattern or are spread across the whole board; each draw is independent and random.
This also means that no strategy based on "hot numbers" or "cold numbers" changes your odds. Historical data is informative and entertaining, but not predictive. For example, historically the most frequent number in Melate is 29 (258 appearances) and the least frequent is 37 (199 appearances), while the average sum of the 6 numbers is around 171. You can explore this data in Most frequent Melate numbers or in our statistics section, but remember: they are curiosities of the past, not a crystal ball.
The lower tiers have better odds
Although the jackpot is very hard to win, Melate hands out prizes across several tiers: 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 matches, plus combinations that include the bonus number in some of them. The fewer matches a tier requires, the easier it is to reach. Matching 2 or 3 numbers happens far more often than matching all 6.
That said, a general rule of lotteries is that the more attainable prizes tend to be smaller. The amounts for each tier are not fixed: they vary in every draw according to the takings and the number of winners who share each jackpot, so exact amounts cannot be announced in advance. To find out what was paid in the most recent draw, you can check the results.
The jackpot: the pot that accumulates
Melate's top prize is called the jackpot. If no one matches the 6 main numbers in a draw, the amount rolls over to the next draw, and it keeps growing until someone wins it. That mechanic explains why you sometimes see enormous figures in the advertisements. The record accumulated jackpot of the series was $639,500,000 MXN, reached in draw 2677 on July 31, 2013.
Melate draws are held on Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays, at around 21:00 central Mexico time. The historical series records more than 2,136 draws since December 9, 2007. If you want an overview of the game, its origin and its rules, take a look at What is Melate?.
Melate vs. Melate Retro: which has better odds?
Melate Retro is a variant with a smaller number field: you choose 6 numbers from 1 to 39 plus a bonus number. Because there are fewer numbers to pick from, there are fewer possible combinations, and that's why its odds are better. The Retro jackpot has a probability of 1 in 3,262,623 (the combination C(39,6)).
Compared with Melate's 1 in 32,468,436, winning the Retro jackpot is roughly ten times more likely. In return, Retro jackpots tend to be smaller: its record was $68,000,000 MXN in draw 1541 on June 24, 2025. Retro draws on Tuesdays and Saturdays and has existed since June 1, 2010, with more than 1,641 draws to date.
Revancha and Revanchita: more chances with the same numbers
If you play Melate, you can add Revancha and Revanchita, two optional draws that are played with the same 6 numbers on your Melate ticket. Each one uses 6 numbers from 1 to 56 (without a bonus number) and has its own jackpot and its own independent draw. That gives you more chances to win on the same play, although each draw keeps its own odds for the jackpot.
Frequently asked questions about Melate odds
What is the exact probability of winning the Melate jackpot?
It's 1 in 32,468,436. That figure equals the total number of possible combinations of 6 numbers chosen from 1 to 56.
Are there numbers that come up more often that are worth playing?
Not in terms of probability. Historically 29 is the most frequent (258 times) and 37 the least frequent (199), but every combination has the same probability. That data is informative, not predictive.
Is it easier to win in Melate Retro?
The Retro jackpot is more likely, at 1 in 3,262,623, because you only choose 6 numbers from 1 to 39. In return, its jackpots tend to be smaller than Melate's.
Do the lower tiers have better odds?
Yes. Matching 2, 3 or 4 numbers is much more likely than matching all 6. Melate awards the tiers of 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 matches, plus combinations with the bonus number in some of them.
Is there any method to predict the winning numbers?
No. No method, system, formula or program predicts or guarantees the winning numbers. The draw is random and every combination has the same probability.
Does it help to choose a combination with a pattern, like 1-2-3-4-5-6?
It doesn't change your odds. Any combination, whether it has a pattern or not, has the same probability of 1 in 32,468,436. If anything, avoiding very popular patterns reduces the risk of sharing the jackpot, but it doesn't increase your chance of winning.
Does playing more tickets improve my odds?
Each additional ticket is one more chance, but the probability per play stays the same and extremely low. It's always best to play responsibly and within your budget.
To keep learning, take a look at How to play Melate, check out the most frequent Melate numbers, understand the full game in What is Melate?, or explore our blog and the historical statistics.
Play with realistic expectations
Knowing the real odds helps you play responsibly and for fun, with no false promises. Generate your combinations with MelateBot AI Picks and remember that no method changes the probabilities.
Related guides
All information on this site is for entertainment purposes. MelateBot is not affiliated with Pronósticos para la Asistencia Pública. No method predicts or guarantees the winning numbers; always play responsibly.